Prices for wheat-based food staples such as bread and noodles remain well above pre-invasion levels in many developing countries despite the decline in Chicago futures due to weak local currencies and higher energy prices which have raised costs such as transport and packaging. Ukraine has exported around 18 million tonnes a year in recent seasons. The potential for more exports from Ukraine has, however, been cited by analysts as a bearish market factor even though only around 500,000 tonnes of wheat has so far been shipped through the corridor. Key factors driving down Chicago wheat prices include a record crop in major exporter Russia this year, a gloomy global economic outlook and a strong dollar. Prices of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade rose sharply in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine but had already fallen back to pre-invasion levels by early July, weeks before the sea corridor was agreed.
It will, however, need a huge number of ships to transport such a large volume of grain and some shipowners may be wary to enter a war zone, particularly with the threat posed by mines and the high cost of insurance.
The three ports involved in the deal - Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi - have the combined capacity to ship around three million tonnes a month and some expect this level of exports could potentially be achieved in October. Ukraine has around 20 million tonnes of grain left over from last year's crop piled up across the country, as well as this year's wheat harvest, which is estimated at about a further 20 million tonnes. Much larger volumes will need to be shipped through the corridor, however, to have a substantial impact on global supplies. The COVID-19 pandemic and climate shocks have also contributed to food price inflation. The sharp decline in shipments from Ukraine played a role in driving up global food prices at a time when world hunger is on the rise. The exclusion of Mykolaiv, the country's second-largest grain terminal according to 2021 shipment data, also makes such an export push challenging. However, there are still too few large ships coming in to keep the required pace of volume needed. Ukraine's farming minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters last week that agricultural exports could rise to 6 million-6.5 million tonnes in October, double the volume seen in July.
#IRON MONEY IMPLEMENTS SIERRA LEONE FULL#
There is an estimated three million tonnes of grain in ports that needs to be moved first, which will probably take until around mid-September to clear.įor a full breakdown of the countries and quantities exported: This partly reflects the timing of Russia's invasion as much of last year's wheat crop had already been exported in February, as it is harvested several months before corn and so tends to be shipped earlier. Shipments of wheat have reached just over 500,000 tonnes. So far, some 2.07 million tonnes of agricultural products have been shipped, predominately corn, but also volumes of soybeans, sunflower oil, sunflower meal and barley. The pact created a safe shipping channel for exports from three ports in Ukraine and the early focus was enabling ships that had been trapped in the war torn country since Russia's invasion in February to leave. The bulk of last year's wheat crop in Ukraine, which is harvested earlier than corn, had already been shipped when Russian troops entered the country.ĭeveloping countries such as Somalia and Eritrea rely heavily on imports of wheat from both Russia and Ukraine.
sees no indication Ukraine grain deal falling apart -White House The early focus has also inevitably been on moving ships which had been stuck in Ukrainian ports for months, most of which were laden with corn and booked by developed countries such as Spain to be used for animal feed or biofuels. Nevertheless, the agreement from the outset was based on facilitating commercial shipments. Markets Analysis Back to Markets Analysis.
0 kommentar(er)
